Vermont’s goals of reducing carbon emissions by 25 percent from the 1990 benchmark by 2012 and by 50 percent by 2028 weren’t haphazard.
They followed a clear trend line starting in 2004 in which the state saw significant reductions. But in 2008, emissions stopped going down. In 2013 they started to rise and by 2015 were 16 percent above 1990.
Two major events disrupted the downward trend. One was a fall in the cost of gasoline and fuel oil. The other was the economic recovery from the Great Recession.
So Vermonters no longer felt as constrained to drive less or turn down the thermostat to save money. As the economy improved after 2008, they also, like the rest of the nation, developed a taste for SUVs – to such an extent that over the next few years Ford Motor will be phasing out most of its smaller cars.
This summer, Vermont Business Magazine – which I edit – took the lead in tracking the rise in carbon emissions. Other reports followed. And in August, the Governor’s Climate Action commission recommended, in its own words, “a cap on greenhouse gas emissions.” Ultimately, it rejected more specific wording that would have promoted a carbon tax if significant progress on reversing the trend does not occur by 2021. But even so, today we find ourselves a far cry from achieving the original carbon reduction goals.
Underlying all this are certain economic realities. Gas pumps at convenience stores are also there to sell customers cigarettes, beer, wine and sandwiches. But increasingly, gas pumps are automated and more filling stations are unmanned. Plus, nearly all the money spent on gasoline and home heating goes out of state – meaning that money spent on fossil fuels is money consumers can't spend on local goods and services.
And the bottom line on a carbon tax is also economic. While such a plan would almost certainly reduce emissions, energy costs would go up regardless of how it was structured. So the people of Vermont and their elected leaders have a difficult choice to make: Lower emissions or higher costs? And that’s a tough sell any time. Even during a long, hot summer.
