Will Vermont's 'Ticket-Splitters' Favor Both Hillary Clinton And Phil Scott?

In half of the last eight presidential elections, Vermonters who split their vote between Republicans and Democrats have had a major impact on the outcome of the gubernatorial race.

That's why the campaign of Republican candidate Phil Scott is making a big effort to appeal to some of Hillary Clinton's supporters. 

It’s also why the campaign of Democratic candidate Sue Minter is working hard to hold on to these voters.

The data is clear that just because someone votes for the presidential candidate of one party, it doesn't necessarily mean that this voter will support the gubernatorial candidate of the same party.

In 2004, Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry received 59 percent of the vote in Vermont. Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial contest, Republican Jim Douglas got exactly the same percentage in his winning race for governor.

In 2008, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama got 67 percent of the vote while Republican Douglas was re-elected with 53 percent.

Retired Middlebury College political science professor Eric Davis says GOP gubernatorial hopeful Phil Scott needs to attract between a quarter and a third of Hillary Clinton's supporters to win the governor's race.

“Now, Republican candidates have done that before. In 2004 and 2008, Jim Douglas got a considerable benefit from ticket-splitting in the two races he won, but he was the incumbent governor then in both of those elections,” Davis says. “This time around, it's an open seat. It's more difficult to get ticket-splitters."

And Davis says a desire for a change in which party leads the state is another key factor when there's an open gubernatorial election.

“Scott can make the argument while Vermont's economy is not a basket case over the last six years, we haven't done as well as we could have, and maybe it's time for a change. And the ‘time for a change’ argument is something that's worked in the past for the candidate from the out party in just about every gubernatorial open election,” Davis says.

Brittney Wilson, Phil Scott's campaign manager, thinks those economic issues will help persuade some Clinton supporters to vote for Scott.

“The fact that Phil is running a campaign all about the economy and affordability, making those his top priorities and running on getting health care under control … those issues that we're running on, I truly believe are what's going to make a difference here to those independents and soft Democrats,” Wilson says.

Molly Ritner, Sue Minter's campaign manager, says part of their strategy to keep the Clinton voters is to try to tie Scott to GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

“Trump and Phil Scott share more than a party,” Ritner says. “They share an economic philosophy that puts the wealthy first. They share a national Republican playbook that says we shouldn't invest in our schools, gun laws shouldn't be strengthened and climate change isn't a problem."  

And Ritner is convinced that very few Clinton backers will actually split their ticket and vote for Scott.

"Voters who are drawn to Hillary Clinton because she is for fair wages, paid family leave and addressing climate change aren't going to vote for Phil Scott because he doesn't share those values,” she says.

Scott campaign manager Wilson points out that her candidate has been strongly critical of Trump for almost a year, and she doesn't think the Trump-Scott connection will stick with voters.

"He certainly does not align with many national Republicans,” Wilson says. “We like to refer to ourselves as Vermont Republicans. That doesn't hold any weight in my point of view. I think people know better than that."

Professor Davis says it's very likely that the campaign that does the best job appealing to Clinton voters who identify as independents will win the November election.