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Ask Bob: What's This New Way Of Tabulating Iowa Caucus Votes?

A person sits next to a whiteboard that reads "Caucus Countdown."
Charlie Neibergall
/
Associated Press
In this Jan. 9, 2020 photo, Bill Iammatteo-Code, of Mystic, Iowa, listens during a caucus training. Caucus officials will tabulate votes in a new way this primary election season.

Most states, like Vermont, use primary elections to award delegates to Democratic presidential candidates. In less than two weeks, Iowa will hold caucuses to do so.

And as VPR senior political reporter Bob Kinzel explains, Iowa's votes will be tabulated in an additional, new way. 

How do the Iowa caucuses work again?

In a primary election, a person has the opportunity to swing by the polls and vote pretty much anytime they want. You go in, you vote, you’re done.

Now in a caucus system, you have to be at a neighborhood site, like a local school, at a very specific time. In the case of Iowa, it’s right at 6:30 in the evening. And you need to be prepared to be there for about an hour.

When the bell rings at 6:30 p.m., supporters of the various candidates go to specific parts of the auditorium, and officials do a headcount for each candidate. If your candidate doesn’t receive 15% of the vote, they’re eliminated for the count for that caucus. These voters then have an opportunity to realign with another candidate, so the second place votes can make a big difference.

Caucuses favor those candidates who are well-organized. First, you need supporters who are willing to spend up to an hour of their time, usually on a pretty cold night, to attend their local caucus. Second, during that realignment period, it’s really important to have knowledgeable and effective staff people in that role because there’s a lot of bargaining going on. They dangle things like, 'If you join us right now, we’ll make sure one of you is a delegate to the state convention.' So having experienced people in that role is really, really important.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJqv--jyXPg&feature=youtu.be

What's new for Feb. 3?

Iowa is going to use two different reporting systems. The first is the one referred to above: That will be used to award actual delegates.

Then, for the first time ever, caucus officials are going to release the raw totals of the initial vote count at each caucus. That’s the one that’s taken right before that realignment period starts. And remember, under the initial tabulation, the candidates who don’t get 15% of the vote, they end up with nothing at that caucus, because their supporters realign with another candidate.

But under this second system, the candidates will get credit for the number of supporters who show up at the beginning of the evening, so it’s really a very different system.

And yes, it is possible for one candidate to win the most number of raw votes, but to not get the largest number of delegates. It's actually pretty likely.

The electoral college vote in the 2016 presidential election is probably a good analogy for the new Iowa system. Donald Trump won the most electoral votes, and he won a number of states by small margins. Hillary Clinton won the overall popular vote because she won some of the big states by huge margins.

So in a sense, there are going to be two winners coming out of Iowa: The person who wins the most delegates, and the person who receives the most raw votes at the caucuses before realignment takes place.

More from VPR's Ask Bob — Why 15% Is Key For Democratic Presidential Candidates Seeking Delegates

So ... why?

Iowa caucus officials think counting votes this way is more transparent, and they feel it’s a way to show candidate strength in the state as a whole.

At a West Des Moines, Iowa caucus in 2004, Howard Dean got 14% of the vote. So under realignment, he ended up with nothing. Now under this new system, that 14% is going to count. So it’s going to make a big difference in the way the candidates are ranked and the votes are tabulated.

As for which tabulation will take precedence — delegates or raw count — it all depends on how it's reported by the media. The original caucus system could take precedence, because that’s how actual delegates are going to be awarded from Iowa. But when you have a raw total, there’s no doubt people are going to look at that and say, 'Wait a minute, this person didn’t win the most delegates, but they won the popular vote, and that should count for something.'

So it’s very possible that there’s going to be a confusing message coming out of Iowa after their caucuses on February 3rd.

Bob Kinzel has been covering the Vermont Statehouse since 1981 — longer than any continuously serving member of the Legislature. With his wealth of institutional knowledge, he answers your questions on our series, "Ask Bob."
A graduate of NYU with a Master's Degree in journalism, Mitch has more than 20 years experience in radio news. He got his start as news director at NYU's college station, and moved on to a news director (and part-time DJ position) for commercial radio station WMVY on Martha's Vineyard. But public radio was where Mitch wanted to be and he eventually moved on to Boston where he worked for six years in a number of different capacities at member station WBUR...as a Senior Producer, Editor, and fill-in co-host of the nationally distributed Here and Now. Mitch has been a guest host of the national NPR sports program "Only A Game". He's also worked as an editor and producer for international news coverage with Monitor Radio in Boston.
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